Antifragile in 60 drawings - Final part!
This is the final post of my series of illustrations covering Nassim Taleb’s exceptional book “Antifragile”, in it, you will discover the author’s views on Education, “Concavity vs Convexity”, “How less can be more”, and other fascinating topics.
If you need to catch-up on the previous parts:
And if not done already, you may subscribe to see my future visual summary.
Now that we are all in sync, let’s dive into the book!
Strategy & Education
A strict Strategic Planning (or as the author calls it “Corporate Teleology”) blocks you from a more natural, opportunity driven evolution. It is also hard to find evidence that it is even effective for compagnies.
The book gives examples of companies evolving in weird and unforeseen directions such as Raytheon, a refrigerator company now working on missile technology, or Nokia starting as a paper mill.
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Antifragility in the form of Tinkering or Trial and error, is provoking “positive black swans”(unexpected extremely positive events) but those are rare and cannot be anticipated by looking at the past.
The benefits are hidden, but they are there.
The difference between a "flâneur” curiosity driven learning, compared to the structured school environment. One is much better at developing real life applicable skills compared to the other.
"What I was given to study in school I have forgotten, what I decided to read on my own I remember" N.Taleb
An Antifragile education would be one of trial and error, following your passion, deep diving on your interests…
…Reading, Reading, and Reading more, trying to find outside the prepackaged knowledge some new ideas that you may use to your advantage.
But also, meanwhile, staying in the education system, as it is providing a low reward, but still is probably a safe bet :).
Socrates Debates "Fat Tony",
Do we need to clearly understand and define everything?
The main point of the author being that:
What is not intelligible can still be intelligent.
(and yes, the typos in the drawing are definitely on purpose… Of course… )
Using Nietzsche's idea of the Dionysian (wild, creatively destructive) & Apollonian (Rational) being complementary, the author sees there an understanding of what Antifragility is:
On one side the Optionality, the trial and error tinkering, combined with a Rational selection.
Without Optionality, the rational is "naive", removing complexity and introducing fragility.
He sees Traditions on the other side, as an example of complex collective knowledge.
The last idea is that the payoff is usually what people care about, even more than something being True or False.
Convexity versus Concavity
Payoff versus Probability:
Unlikely events have such a big consequence that they cannot be overlooked.
For example in an airport, you may have probability on your side saying that none of the passenger boarding are troublesome, but it is still advantageous to check.
Non-linearity:
Both Fragility & Antifragility are Non-linear, but one on the negative side and the other on the positive.
Something fragile may resist lots of small chocs, but be completely crushed after a threshold is crossed,
This draws a concave line which can be remembered as a frowny face ☹️
The Antifragile is the opposite 🙂
Something is non-linear when, as it gets larger, the effects become exponential.
We find an illustration of Antifragility in the form of :
- Redundancy: Example having an extra wheel just in case.
- Buffer time: Example having one or two extra days to travel somewhere, avoiding you the stress of a missed connection, + maybe a free hotel night to enjoy / extra cash from the airline company.
In that scenario you might even wish for the extraordinary event delaying your flight! This is inline with the definition of “Antifragility” = Something that loves volatility.
The fragility of size:
Things that are larger have a harder time handling the unexpected, which make them fragile.
In project management, the book cite Bent Flyvbjerg which argues that larger projects are worst in terms of cost, timing and outcome.
The one things that saves it, is that large can be sliced into smaller chunks, and get less fragile that way.
Detecting Fragility:
You can detect fragility by looking at the acceleration of harm, example:
If a decrease 10% in sales hurt a company more than a 10% increase would benefit it ==> it is Fragile.
The book talks also about the problem of using models, example:
Looking only at averages… Volatility always needs to be taken into account, otherwise we miss the harm (or benefit in the antifragile case) done by the extreme events/values.
Knowing that the average temperature is 20 degrees is not helpful if it varies from -50 to +100 degrees.
Via Negativa
The secret of the famous David Statue?
“It is simple. I remove everything that is not David” - Michaelangelo
“How many things one should disregard in order to act.” - Paul Valery
This is probably my favorite idea from the book, Via Negativa, looking at “how not to”, “what something is not”, subtracting rather than adding etc..
Some examples:
Ignoring 99 % (an extension of the 80/20 Pareto principle.)
Negative knowledge (Disproving / Disconfirming, proving wrong is easier than the opposite)
Saying NO
Removing fragility as a way to become robust
Avoid doing the wrong thing, avoid unnecessary intervention
Time and fragility:
Everything breaks eventually, but the fragile goes first!
Want to see the future? Subtract what will likely fails, and look at what as subsisted from the past.
A Roman kitchen looked a lot like a modern kitchen,
Technology becomes more invisible, removing more visible technologies.
The Lindy Effect:
The book Antifragile popularized this concept, and hearing it was what pushed me to get the book, so I'm glad to have it now captured in a drawing.
The Lindy effect says that you can expect any non-perishable thing (a concept, a technology, anything not physically degrading) to stick around for the same time that it has already survived.
Example:
A 100 years old book, would likely still be read for another 100 years...
If after that time it is still being read and relevant, then you may add 200 more years etc...
Cool concept right 😁?
Most new ideas are fragile, so likely to die sooner than something that as stood the test of time.
Top down vs Natural:
Some things would benefit from being more fragile, a Top down approach can produce irreversible mistakes. An example is in architecture, where some mistakes can last seemingly forever.
Bottom up is more natural, producing incremental changes, creating and destructing over time with fractal patterns, nuances and details at every size.
Prophets:
Nassim Taleb, as you may have guessed, doesn’t believe in forecast and predictions. Prophets however are the ones looking at the present, taking a deep look at today’s vulnerabilities and sharing it with others.
Medicine Opacity and convexity:
This chapter is full of nuances so the drawings may not fully capture its meaning,
The general thought being that the un-natural could be by default considered dangerous, until proven safe.
Theory < Effect
Rationalist comes up with theories,
Skeptical Empiricist disprove them,
Methodist are the only one using the effect by doing.
Antifragile Health:
"To live long, but not too long"
The author (Nassim N. Taleb) doubles down on the idea of the "Via Negativa", getting benefits by removing things, avoiding fragility.
It can be for example avoiding aggressive treatment for mild issues, or in the diet space temporarily avoiding food (fasting).
He also argues in favor of the "timeless", using walks rather than Gym machines, drinking water rather than juices, food that your ancestors could have eaten rather than modern processed food.
Another interesting idea is that as omnivore, we are probably more adapted to eating different kind of food during different days or periods, rather than achieving a diverse diet by eating every kind at once each day (proteins, fruits, vegetables, cereals etc ).
The book is not really about diet, and everything is mentioned more as the way the author applies the ideas of Antifragility in his own daily life.
Skin in the game:
Having "Skin in the game":
Being personally involved and impacted by your actions or the opinions you promote.
The author separate 3 categories:
- No skin in the game:
You reap the benefits from others, but transfer any downside to them.
Ex: Bankers, Consultants, Politician
- Skin in the game:
You take your own risk.
Ex: Traders, Artisans, Experimenters
- Soul in the game (or skin in the game for the sake of others):
Taking risk for others or for some universal value
Ex: Rebels, Artists, Innovators,
Not having skin in the game, leads to a lot of "cheap talk", where one can get away with sharing opinions and influencing others in a bad direction with no consequences. Worse they can "Post-dict" , cherry picking statements to make it look as if they made a correct prediction a posteriori.
Antifragility for the benefit of the collective:
The last chapter talk about Ethics, how freedom requires the courage to be self-owned, having no outside influence steering your opinion.
Unethical actions are taken with the hidden will to benefit oneself. It is trying to be Antifragile but at the expense of others.
During the entire book the author showed how Antifragility (being able to benefit from shocks and volatility) benefit individual or group in an entertaining, contrariant, insightful way.
I hope you enjoyed the visual walkthrough!
Needless to say I recommend the book 🙂
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